Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012023 230702 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.00 115.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 15.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.7 19.7 20.8 20.9 18.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 57.9 54.3 52.0 43.7 40.0 40.9 40.9 40.9 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 27.0 42.0 35.0 7.0 -8.0 -27.0 -27.0 -27.0 U N N U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 68.0 65.0 63.0 57.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.48 EP012023 230702 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.00 115.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.