Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012023 230702 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 115.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.10 F TC SIZE [%] 65.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.3 19.4 19.4 14.4 20.9 16.8 16.8 16.8 F N N F N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 64.3 62.0 53.7 51.8 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 42.0 11.0 -12.0 -9.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 U N U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 66.0 62.0 59.0 52.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 N N N U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.18 EP012023 230702 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 115.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.