Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012023 230702 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 116.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.50 F TC SIZE [%] 59.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.5 19.2 15.6 19.9 19.1 21.0 21.0 21.0 N N F N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 67.0 67.0 56.8 55.0 55.9 53.3 53.3 53.3 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 26.0 14.0 -6.0 -18.0 -38.0 -27.0 -27.0 -27.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 61.0 57.0 56.0 48.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 N N U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.00 EP012023 230702 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 116.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.