Rapid Intensification Guidance EP022023 230629 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.20 96.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 27.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.4 18.8 14.0 12.8 23.9 25.2 25.3 28.0 F N F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 34.0 36.0 43.0 44.0 27.0 19.0 25.0 12.0 U U N N U U U U Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 117.4 F F F F F F F N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 43.0 51.0 25.0 83.0 108.0 129.0 94.0 100.0 N N U N F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 83.0 84.0 85.0 86.0 84.0 82.0 75.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -6.0 -4.0 -12.0 N N N N N F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.2% 3.6% 2.4% 25kt / 24h 11.3% 37.4% 24.3% 30kt / 24h 5.5% 20.3% 12.9% 35kt / 24h 2.9% 19.2% 11.0% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 19.2% 10.0% 45kt / 36h 10.6% 50.1% 30.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 28.5% 14.3% 55kt / 48h 20.8% 28.7% 24.8% 70kt / 48h 6.5% 24.1% 15.3% 65kt / 72h 17.2% 40.3% 28.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.56 EP022023 230629 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.20 96.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.4 18.8 14.0 12.8 23.9 25.2 25.3 28.0 U N U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 82.0 83.0 84.0 85.0 86.0 84.0 82.0 75.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -6.0 -4.0 -12.0 N N N N N U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%