Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022023 230629 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70     97.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  17.0  16.0  19.7  23.5  28.8  20.4  23.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  42.0  45.0  36.0  22.0  19.0  24.0  12.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 127.3 116.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  32.0  76.0  71.0  78.0  91.0  33.0  99.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  82.0  85.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  78.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        5.5%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h       16.1%       43.5%       29.8%
 30kt / 24h        7.2%       26.0%       16.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%       25.3%       14.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       24.8%       13.3%
 45kt / 36h       12.3%       51.7%       32.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       30.0%       15.0%
 55kt / 48h       19.2%       28.1%       23.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%       21.0%       12.5%
 65kt / 72h       10.2%       33.7%       21.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 EP022023 230629 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70     97.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  17.0  16.0  19.7  23.5  28.8  20.4  23.6  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  82.0  85.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  78.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -3.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%