Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022023 230629 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     98.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  14.6  21.9  24.9  24.3  20.7  25.4  21.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  49.0  38.0  29.0  19.0  18.0  19.0  11.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6  96.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  54.0  52.0  75.0 103.0  49.0  85.0  94.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  85.0  85.0  86.0  84.0  82.0  79.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        7.6%        5.0%
 25kt / 24h       17.7%       45.3%       31.5%
 30kt / 24h        7.3%       27.6%       17.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%       27.3%       15.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%       26.1%       13.7%
 45kt / 36h       12.3%       54.8%       33.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       32.9%       16.4%
 55kt / 48h       20.6%       32.5%       26.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.3%       24.8%       14.5%
 65kt / 72h       10.4%       34.6%       22.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 EP022023 230629 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     98.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  14.6  21.9  24.9  24.3  20.7  25.4  21.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  85.0  85.0  86.0  84.0  82.0  79.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%