Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022023 230629 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80     99.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  21.2  24.0  23.1  26.3  18.5  26.4  19.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  42.0  30.0  23.0  17.0  24.0  19.0  10.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 124.6  91.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  69.0  81.0  89.0  69.0  69.0  97.0 108.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  83.0  84.0  84.0  82.0  79.0  76.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0  -5.0  -3.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        7.0%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h       20.0%       42.8%       31.4%
 30kt / 24h        8.6%       25.7%       17.1%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%       25.7%       15.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       24.7%       12.9%
 45kt / 36h       10.3%       43.5%       26.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       22.2%       11.1%
 55kt / 48h       15.6%       28.3%       21.9%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%       18.7%       11.2%
 65kt / 72h       10.9%       27.9%       19.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 EP022023 230629 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80     99.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  21.2  24.0  23.1  26.3  18.5  26.4  19.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  83.0  84.0  84.0  82.0  79.0  76.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0  -5.0  -3.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%