Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022023 230630 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30     99.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  22.3  19.4  20.3  20.1  23.4  23.7  19.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  30.0  23.0  19.0  15.0  24.0  18.0   9.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 113.6  98.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  55.0  78.0  78.0  50.0  68.0  80.0  89.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  81.0  79.0  78.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        3.3%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h       12.1%       28.2%       20.1%
 30kt / 24h        5.8%       13.5%        9.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%       13.5%        8.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       13.5%        7.3%
 45kt / 36h        8.5%       28.5%       18.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.5%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h       11.0%       17.1%       14.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        9.8%        6.2%
 65kt / 72h        8.5%       18.8%       13.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 EP022023 230630 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30     99.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  22.3  19.4  20.3  20.1  23.4  23.7  19.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  85.0  84.0  83.0  81.0  79.0  78.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%