Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022023 230630 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    100.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  18.9  17.7  23.0  20.3  24.2  18.4  22.3  N  N  F  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  24.0  18.0  15.0  20.0  21.0  12.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 112.0  98.6  77.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  50.0  74.0 117.0  84.0  97.0  47.0  53.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  84.0  83.0  82.0  77.0  79.0  74.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.9%       12.5%       15.2%
 25kt / 24h       34.4%       49.3%       41.9%
 30kt / 24h       24.0%       34.7%       29.3%
 35kt / 24h       20.8%       34.7%       27.7%
 40kt / 24h       20.8%       34.7%       27.7%
 45kt / 36h       29.3%       44.7%       37.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       22.8%       11.4%
 55kt / 48h       17.6%       24.3%       21.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.9%       14.2%        9.5%
 65kt / 72h        3.4%       13.7%        8.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 EP022023 230630 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    100.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  18.9  17.7  23.0  20.3  24.2  18.4  22.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  84.0  83.0  82.0  77.0  79.0  74.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%