Rapid Intensification Guidance EP022023 230630 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.70 101.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 58.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 31.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.0 18.6 24.6 21.8 21.3 17.6 18.0 23.6 N N N N N F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 19.0 17.0 18.0 21.0 13.0 6.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0 93.6 78.0 57.2 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 53.0 42.0 26.0 35.0 51.0 73.0 68.0 -13.0 N N U N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 82.0 82.0 81.0 78.0 75.0 72.0 72.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -4.0 -3.0 -1.0 -4.0 -2.0 -4.0 -1.0 N F N N F N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 33.1% 23.5% 28.3% 25kt / 24h 43.0% 59.4% 51.2% 30kt / 24h 33.5% 50.5% 42.0% 35kt / 24h 32.0% 50.5% 41.2% 40kt / 24h 23.3% 50.5% 36.9% 45kt / 36h 28.7% 52.2% 40.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 33.3% 16.7% 55kt / 48h 11.9% 24.1% 18.0% 70kt / 48h 2.5% 16.2% 9.3% 65kt / 72h 0.3% 10.2% 5.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.12 EP022023 230630 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.70 101.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.0 18.6 24.6 21.8 21.3 17.6 18.0 23.6 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 82.0 82.0 81.0 78.0 75.0 72.0 72.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -4.0 -3.0 -1.0 -4.0 -2.0 -4.0 -1.0 N U N N U N U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%