Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022023 230630 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    102.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  26.7  25.6  21.4  23.9  14.2  17.2  21.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  16.0  17.0  25.0  15.0  10.0   5.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  69.4  52.7  35.8  37.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  48.0  33.0  22.0  62.0  49.0   4.0 -12.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  82.0  80.0  80.0  79.0  72.0  71.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       64.1%       30.3%       47.2%
 25kt / 24h       61.3%       58.8%       60.1%
 30kt / 24h       61.3%       56.7%       59.0%
 35kt / 24h       61.3%       56.7%       59.0%
 40kt / 24h       61.3%       56.7%       59.0%
 45kt / 36h       32.4%       28.6%       30.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.8%        6.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%       12.0%        9.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 EP022023 230630 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    102.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  26.7  25.6  21.4  23.9  14.2  17.2  21.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  82.0  80.0  80.0  79.0  72.0  71.0  66.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%