Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022023 230701 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    103.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  27.4  24.9  28.4  20.1  16.3  17.3  21.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  19.0  24.0  23.0  13.0   9.0   6.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  87.0  73.6  54.4  54.4  35.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  11.0  -3.0   3.0  31.0   0.0 -11.0  17.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  69.0  72.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -3.0  -4.0  -6.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   1.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.7%        9.0%       17.3%
 25kt / 24h       26.3%       21.6%       23.9%
 30kt / 24h       26.3%       16.1%       21.2%
 35kt / 24h       26.3%       16.1%       21.2%
 40kt / 24h       26.3%       16.1%       21.2%
 45kt / 36h       10.1%        5.4%        7.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        2.2%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 EP022023 230701 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    103.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  27.4  24.9  28.4  20.1  16.3  17.3  21.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  69.0  72.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -3.0  -4.0  -6.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   1.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%