Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022023 230701 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    105.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  26.7  26.6  16.1  18.0  19.4  23.1  23.1  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  19.0  16.0  13.0   8.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.0 115.0  98.6 107.3  84.8  84.8  63.6  63.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  65.0  61.0  22.0  21.0 -25.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  66.0  70.0  63.0  63.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 EP022023 230701 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    105.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  26.7  26.6  16.1  18.0  19.4  23.1  23.1  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  66.0  70.0  63.0  63.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%