Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032023 230712 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  22.9  21.0  19.6  22.4  18.7  18.2  11.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  23.0  24.0  13.0   9.0  11.0   6.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 134.3 134.3 132.0 118.6 114.4 104.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  57.0   7.0  -4.0  25.0  70.0  36.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  82.0  80.0  81.0  84.0  80.0  79.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   3.0   1.0  -6.0  -9.0  -3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%       23.9%       14.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%       12.5%        6.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%       12.0%        6.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%       11.1%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       27.9%       15.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.3%        6.2%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%       14.1%        9.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        9.1%        4.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%       17.0%        9.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.48

 EP032023 230712 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  22.9  21.0  19.6  22.4  18.7  18.2  11.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  82.0  80.0  81.0  84.0  80.0  79.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   3.0   1.0  -6.0  -9.0  -3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%