Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032023 230712 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    109.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  20.1  20.0  22.8  22.0  22.7  14.9  13.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  27.0  16.0  10.0  10.0  11.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 129.3 129.3 129.3 124.6 111.5 109.4  98.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  12.0 -10.0   0.0  46.0  58.0  15.0  32.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  81.0  81.0  83.0  81.0  78.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   1.0  -1.0  -3.0 -10.0  -2.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        3.7%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%       26.1%       16.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%       13.7%        8.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%       13.5%        7.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       13.2%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.5%       29.6%       17.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.2%        6.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.3%       11.7%        8.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        7.8%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%       13.6%        7.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 EP032023 230712 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    109.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  20.1  20.0  22.8  22.0  22.7  14.9  13.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  81.0  81.0  83.0  81.0  78.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   1.0  -1.0  -3.0 -10.0  -2.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%