Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032023 230712 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    111.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  19.4  24.2  21.2  19.1  16.9  12.0  11.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  16.0  12.0  11.0  13.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.3 119.3 119.3 119.3 105.7  99.4  89.8  79.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0   2.0  15.0  41.0  86.0  45.0  34.0   6.0  U  U  U  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  79.0  82.0  80.0  80.0  74.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -9.0  -2.0   6.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.9%       17.1%       16.0%
 25kt / 24h       26.9%       54.0%       40.5%
 30kt / 24h       18.1%       43.6%       30.8%
 35kt / 24h       17.4%       43.6%       30.5%
 40kt / 24h       10.1%       41.9%       26.0%
 45kt / 36h       17.4%       55.8%       36.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       37.8%       18.9%
 55kt / 48h       11.5%       22.5%       17.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%       20.2%       11.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%       18.6%        9.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 EP032023 230712 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    111.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  19.4  24.2  21.2  19.1  16.9  12.0  11.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  79.0  82.0  80.0  80.0  74.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -9.0  -2.0   6.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%