Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032023 230713 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    114.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  21.2  19.4  18.6  13.3  13.9  11.4  14.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  11.0  12.0  13.0   8.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.3 104.3 102.0  90.7  84.4  74.8  73.0  59.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  46.0  39.0  45.0  10.0  25.0  -5.0  -2.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  81.0  80.0  81.0  81.0  74.0  71.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -8.0 -10.0  -1.0   3.0  -4.0   4.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       29.0%       22.5%       25.8%
 25kt / 24h       37.0%       55.0%       46.0%
 30kt / 24h       29.1%       49.4%       39.3%
 35kt / 24h       26.8%       49.4%       38.1%
 40kt / 24h       26.8%       48.3%       37.5%
 45kt / 36h       21.8%       44.2%       33.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       27.7%       13.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%       14.6%       11.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%       10.6%        6.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        7.1%        3.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 EP032023 230713 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    114.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  21.2  19.4  18.6  13.3  13.9  11.4  14.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  81.0  80.0  81.0  81.0  74.0  71.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -8.0 -10.0  -1.0   3.0  -4.0   4.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%