Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032023 230713 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    116.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  20.4  17.9  15.1  14.1  13.2  14.9  19.1  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  11.0  11.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.3  85.7  83.6  81.5  69.8  68.0  56.1  44.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  29.0  41.0  35.0  56.0  33.0  13.0 -33.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  77.0  79.0  75.0  72.0  67.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -8.0  -6.0  -7.0   1.0  -1.0   4.0  -2.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.8%       12.8%       12.8%
 25kt / 24h       19.9%       36.7%       28.3%
 30kt / 24h       14.6%       32.6%       23.6%
 35kt / 24h       13.2%       32.6%       22.9%
 40kt / 24h        8.5%       30.4%       19.5%
 45kt / 36h       10.9%       22.6%       16.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.2%        5.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.5%        8.4%        7.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.98

 EP032023 230713 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    116.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  20.4  17.9  15.1  14.1  13.2  14.9  19.1  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  77.0  79.0  75.0  72.0  67.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -8.0  -6.0  -7.0   1.0  -1.0   4.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%