Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032023 230714 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  11.8  16.0  13.6  16.0  15.2  15.2  18.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   9.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         68.6  66.5  66.5  54.8  53.0  39.6  28.0  26.7  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  73.0  65.0  48.0  19.0   9.0 -16.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  75.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  65.0  61.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -5.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       61.8%       39.4%       50.6%
 25kt / 24h       50.7%       61.1%       55.9%
 30kt / 24h       44.0%       61.1%       52.6%
 35kt / 24h       44.0%       61.1%       52.6%
 40kt / 24h       44.0%       57.7%       50.8%
 45kt / 36h       34.0%       42.1%       38.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.56

 EP032023 230714 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  11.8  16.0  13.6  16.0  15.2  15.2  18.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  75.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  65.0  61.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -5.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%