Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032023 230714 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  13.7  12.6  17.5  15.4  15.6  18.7  20.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.5  34.8  34.8  33.0  21.1   9.4   6.7   2.9  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  44.0  37.0   7.0  44.0 -14.0   2.0 -13.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  70.0  64.0  60.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -6.0   2.0   0.0   4.0   7.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       43.9%       14.7%       29.3%
 25kt / 24h       16.6%       16.5%       16.6%
 30kt / 24h       15.8%       11.3%       13.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.22

 EP032023 230714 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.