Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032023 230715 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    125.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  15.2  15.1  13.6  19.1  20.1  20.6  22.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         31.6  29.8  19.3  17.7   5.8   1.7  -2.1   0.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0   6.0  13.0  15.0 -20.0  21.0 -16.0  -3.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  69.0  68.0  63.0  57.0  56.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -10.0  -5.0   1.0   0.0   6.0   5.0   2.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.5%        2.4%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.78

 EP032023 230715 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    125.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.