Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032023 230716 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    132.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  20.4  17.0  12.7  15.4  18.0  23.1  29.1  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         43.0  33.0  31.7  31.7  29.2  33.0  34.4  40.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0 -23.0   0.0  18.0   0.0  18.0  13.0   2.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  56.0  54.0  54.0  49.0  45.0  40.0  39.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   9.0   5.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.2%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.58

 EP032023 230716 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    132.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.