Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032023 230716 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    134.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  19.8  15.0  13.7  17.1  21.1  27.6  33.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         43.0  41.7  41.7  43.0  41.7  44.4  47.2  51.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0  18.0  12.0  -7.0  27.0  32.0  22.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  47.0  45.0  39.0  40.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   1.0   3.0   7.0   7.0  11.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.42

 EP032023 230716 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    134.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.