Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032023 230718 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    144.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     49.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  24.0  28.5  31.8  30.2  34.8  42.3  52.0  N  N  N  U  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   6.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         68.0  70.8  69.4  72.2  78.0  89.4  93.0  93.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  39.0  20.0  19.0  23.0 -19.0  19.0  36.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  42.0  40.0  40.0  38.0  35.0  33.0  32.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   5.0   6.0   8.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.40

 EP032023 230718 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    144.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.