Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032023 230719 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    157.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     47.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.3  39.5  42.3  48.2  57.3  62.4  62.4  62.4  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  14.0  17.0  25.0   9.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.7  96.2  98.0  99.8 103.5 107.4 107.4 107.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0 -17.0  27.0  10.0  20.0 -23.0 -23.0 -23.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   37.0  35.0  36.0  35.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  31.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   4.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.70

 EP032023 230719 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    157.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.