Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042023 230721 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    124.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.5  43.8  46.6  48.5  51.5  56.0  56.0  56.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.0  88.0  86.5  86.5  76.7  75.4  75.4  75.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   120.0 113.0  60.0  77.0  22.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  60.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.10

 EP042023 230721 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    124.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.