Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230731 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    103.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  18.2  15.7  10.0  15.6  17.4  16.6  18.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  36.0  23.0  23.0  30.0  15.0  13.0  14.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 129.6 129.6 125.1 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  31.0  -2.0   3.0  21.0  10.0 -18.0   4.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0   0.0   2.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        4.5%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        8.9%       35.0%       21.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%       19.4%       12.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%       18.6%       10.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       18.6%       10.1%
 45kt / 36h       11.0%       49.1%       30.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       28.6%       14.3%
 55kt / 48h       17.1%       26.7%       21.9%
 70kt / 48h        7.9%       21.4%       14.6%
 65kt / 72h       12.0%       30.9%       21.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 EP052023 230731 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    103.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  18.2  15.7  10.0  15.6  17.4  16.6  18.2  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0   0.0   2.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%