Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    106.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9   9.0  11.6  17.0  18.4  17.8  18.4  16.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  30.0  28.0  26.0  17.0  13.0  14.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 129.3 124.6 127.0 120.1 113.6 115.7 109.4  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0   4.0   9.0   4.0   9.0  -1.0   9.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        5.5%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h        7.6%       30.5%       19.1%
 30kt / 24h        6.0%       15.7%       10.9%
 35kt / 24h        5.9%       15.7%       10.8%
 40kt / 24h        5.9%       15.7%       10.8%
 45kt / 36h        8.5%       31.4%       20.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.6%        6.8%
 55kt / 48h        9.7%       12.9%       11.3%
 70kt / 48h        5.4%        9.2%        7.3%
 65kt / 72h        6.7%       14.5%       10.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.50

 EP052023 230801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    106.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9   9.0  11.6  17.0  18.4  17.8  18.4  16.6  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%