Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    107.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.7  10.9  18.1  19.3  13.4  16.8  14.4  15.8  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  29.0  23.0  18.0  17.0  17.0   6.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.3 114.6 110.1 112.3 105.7 105.7  99.4 103.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  12.0  -2.0  -5.0  -9.0  -3.0  18.0 -24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -1.0  -7.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.1%       30.1%       26.1%
 25kt / 24h       33.3%       63.4%       48.4%
 30kt / 24h       24.7%       54.7%       39.7%
 35kt / 24h       24.6%       54.7%       39.6%
 40kt / 24h       24.6%       53.6%       39.1%
 45kt / 36h       24.3%       67.4%       45.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       53.9%       26.9%
 55kt / 48h       18.5%       30.2%       24.3%
 70kt / 48h        7.4%       29.5%       18.5%
 65kt / 72h        4.0%       26.5%       15.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 EP052023 230801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    107.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.7  10.9  18.1  19.3  13.4  16.8  14.4  15.8  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  -1.0  -7.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%