Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230802 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    110.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  15.0  14.0  14.3  21.7  18.9  18.5  17.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  17.0  18.0  18.0  18.0   3.0  12.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.1  85.7  81.5  85.7  77.4  79.4  77.4  83.6  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0   0.0  -8.0 -24.0 -26.0 -51.0 -72.0   7.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       51.2%       29.9%       40.5%
 25kt / 24h       36.8%       51.6%       44.2%
 30kt / 24h       36.8%       47.7%       42.2%
 35kt / 24h       36.4%       47.7%       42.1%
 40kt / 24h       36.4%       47.7%       42.1%
 45kt / 36h       21.4%       35.5%       28.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       22.0%       11.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        8.2%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        5.8%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 EP052023 230802 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    110.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  15.0  14.0  14.3  21.7  18.9  18.5  17.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  57.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%