Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230802 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    111.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  14.9  15.4  21.0  23.7  21.6  21.4  19.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  14.0   7.0   1.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.3  75.1  72.9  68.6  60.5  64.4  68.6  68.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  -5.0 -26.0 -25.0 -35.0 -38.0 -17.0   0.0  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  60.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       64.0%       30.8%       47.4%
 25kt / 24h       50.5%       41.0%       45.8%
 30kt / 24h       50.5%       38.1%       44.3%
 35kt / 24h       50.5%       38.1%       44.3%
 40kt / 24h       50.5%       38.1%       44.3%
 45kt / 36h       23.0%       17.8%       20.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.6%        4.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        3.2%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.00

 EP052023 230802 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    111.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  14.9  15.4  21.0  23.7  21.6  21.4  19.4  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  60.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%