Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230802 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    114.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  18.1  21.1  20.8  23.4  22.9  20.6  18.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  15.0  14.0  12.0   2.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.7  58.6  60.7  60.7  54.4  58.6  56.5  54.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0 -14.0 -25.0   3.0   1.0  36.0  60.0   6.0  U  U VU  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  56.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.0%        8.7%       14.3%
 25kt / 24h       13.8%       11.6%       12.7%
 30kt / 24h       13.8%        8.2%       11.0%
 35kt / 24h       13.8%        8.2%       11.0%
 40kt / 24h       13.8%        8.2%       11.0%
 45kt / 36h       14.1%        4.9%        9.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.82

 EP052023 230802 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    114.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  18.1  21.1  20.8  23.4  22.9  20.6  18.2  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  57.0  57.0  56.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%