Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230803 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    116.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  19.4  21.4  22.5  25.0  20.4  17.3  15.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  15.0  14.0   9.0  15.0   1.0   2.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         38.6  36.5  40.7  34.4  32.4  38.6  36.5  34.4  U  U  U VU VU  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0 -29.0   8.0   4.0   1.0  75.0  51.0   3.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  59.0  63.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       28.9%        6.7%       17.8%
 25kt / 24h        6.7%        5.2%        6.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%        3.0%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 EP052023 230803 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    116.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  19.4  21.4  22.5  25.0  20.4  17.3  15.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  56.0  57.0  59.0  59.0  63.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%