Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    117.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     33.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  20.7  22.3  22.7  24.1  18.8  16.2  14.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  14.0   9.0  11.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.7  35.7  29.4  29.4  27.4  31.5  29.4  33.6  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0   7.0   4.0  14.0  15.0  47.0  20.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  61.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.9%        4.4%       14.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        3.0%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.66

 EP052023 230803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    117.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     33.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  20.7  22.3  22.7  24.1  18.8  16.2  14.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  61.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%