Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230803 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    119.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     39.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  20.0  21.7  24.7  22.3  16.9  16.3  16.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0   9.0  13.0  13.0   1.0   2.0   8.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.7  34.4  34.4  32.4  38.6  36.5  34.4  30.5  U VU VU VU  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  -5.0  -2.0  22.0  49.0  46.0  20.0  21.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  57.0  61.0  62.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        1.3%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.60

 EP052023 230803 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    119.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     39.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  20.0  21.7  24.7  22.3  16.9  16.3  16.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  57.0  61.0  62.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.6%        1.8%