Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230804 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    124.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  23.9  21.6  18.6  18.5  14.3  14.0  12.9  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   4.0   7.0  13.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         33.6  33.6  33.6  31.5  31.5  35.7  31.5  29.4 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  88.0  58.0  62.0  56.0  35.0   8.0  28.0  U  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -5.0  -9.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -5.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.8%        1.5%        5.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        2.1%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 EP052023 230804 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    124.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  23.9  21.6  18.6  18.5  14.3  14.0  12.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -5.0  -9.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -5.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%