Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230805 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    130.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  20.9  19.8  20.2  17.3  17.9  16.7  17.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   4.0   8.0   4.0   9.0   6.0   2.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         56.5  56.5  54.4  50.5  56.5  54.4  54.4  52.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  47.0  29.0  20.0   2.0   4.0 -20.0  -7.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  57.0  51.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0  -8.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.7%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        1.9%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        1.0%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%        0.7%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 EP052023 230805 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    130.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  20.9  19.8  20.2  17.3  17.9  16.7  17.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  57.0  51.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0  -8.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%