Rapid Intensification Guidance EP052023 230805 12UTC Storm Located at : 13.40 132.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 64.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 49.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.6 20.0 22.6 20.1 17.8 19.4 23.1 21.2 F N N N F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 7.0 3.0 8.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 51.5 49.4 45.5 45.5 51.5 49.4 47.4 47.4 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 34.0 25.0 16.0 28.0 27.0 8.0 -7.0 U N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 60.0 59.0 62.0 57.0 52.0 47.0 43.0 N N U N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -3.0 -9.0 -4.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.0 N N N F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.2% 4.0% 7.1% 25kt / 24h 6.3% 5.8% 6.1% 30kt / 24h 6.3% 3.4% 4.9% 35kt / 24h 6.3% 3.4% 4.9% 40kt / 24h 6.3% 3.4% 4.8% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.46 EP052023 230805 12UTC Storm Located at : 13.40 132.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95.