Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230806 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    137.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     38.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  15.9  15.1  16.5  19.9  23.5  18.5  18.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   2.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   2.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         15.5  13.5  21.5  19.4  19.4  17.4  17.4  19.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  35.0  35.0  14.0 -21.0 -15.0 -29.0   0.0  N  N  N  U VU  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  48.0  43.0  44.0  43.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -10.0  -8.0  -5.0  -1.0  -1.0   3.0   7.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.38

 EP052023 230806 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    137.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.