Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230806 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    139.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     31.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  14.6  15.9  16.8  24.8  22.0  19.8  17.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   3.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   3.0  13.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         26.5  26.5  24.4  24.4  22.4  22.4  22.4  24.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  39.0  29.0  -1.0 -24.0  -5.0 -10.0   0.0  N  N  N  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  57.0  55.0  52.0  44.0  44.0  42.0  44.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -7.0  -6.0   0.0  -3.0   8.0  11.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.0%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 EP052023 230806 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    139.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     31.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  14.6  15.9  16.8  24.8  22.0  19.8  17.9  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  57.0  55.0  52.0  44.0  44.0  42.0  44.0  N  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -7.0  -6.0   0.0  -3.0   8.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%