Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230807 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    145.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     43.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  18.5  23.7  24.3  20.5  15.8  15.5  15.3  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   7.0   5.0   4.0   8.0  15.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         22.4  22.4  22.4  24.4  24.4  24.4  26.5  26.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0 -15.0 -31.0 -28.0   0.0 -12.0 -20.0   5.0  U  U VU VU  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  44.0  42.0  42.0  40.0  41.0  44.0  43.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -1.0   5.0   6.0   4.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.44

 EP052023 230807 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    145.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.