Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    147.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  23.2  23.9  23.1  17.8  12.5  16.3  16.7  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   8.0   5.0   3.0  24.0   7.0  23.0  41.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         27.4  27.4  29.4  29.4  29.4  31.5  33.6  31.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  -1.0  -7.0   5.0  -2.0 -27.0  -8.0  -7.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  42.0  40.0  39.0  38.0  41.0  42.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -6.0  -6.0   3.0   4.0   8.0   6.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.0%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.44

 EP052023 230807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    147.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.