Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230807 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    149.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     33.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  23.4  22.1  22.1  15.9  14.8  15.9  18.8  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   6.0   3.0   5.0   8.0  16.0  24.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         27.4  29.4  29.4  29.4  29.4  31.5  35.7  35.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  -4.0   3.0   0.0 -22.0 -32.0  -2.0 -33.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  41.0  40.0  39.0  40.0  41.0  44.0  44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0  -7.0   0.0   4.0   3.0   7.0   7.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.0%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.46

 EP052023 230807 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    149.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.