Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10    151.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     34.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  21.9  20.9  19.0  14.2  17.8  19.0  19.7  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   3.0   5.0  26.0   6.0  22.0  37.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         29.4  29.4  29.4  29.4  31.5  33.6  31.5  35.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  -5.0 -13.0 -26.0 -18.0  -2.0  -1.0  17.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  39.0  39.0  40.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0   4.0   5.0   9.0   7.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        0.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.48

 EP052023 230808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10    151.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.