Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230809 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    159.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     29.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  18.8  17.8  16.9  17.6  18.4  23.3  26.8  F  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  14.0  20.0  23.0  47.0  47.0  42.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         35.7  35.7  37.9  33.6  35.7  37.9  40.1  42.3  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -28.0 -29.0 -47.0  -7.0 -13.0  39.0  38.0 -19.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  45.0  43.0  44.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   3.0   4.0   6.0   5.0   9.0   9.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        0.9%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.0%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 EP052023 230809 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    159.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     29.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  18.8  17.8  16.9  17.6  18.4  23.3  26.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  45.0  43.0  44.0  45.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   3.0   4.0   6.0   5.0   9.0   9.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        9.0%        4.5%