Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230809 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    161.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     31.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  15.8  15.7  13.9  19.8  24.3  23.3  30.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  22.0  24.0  29.0  51.0  45.0  37.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         37.9  37.9  37.9  35.7  35.7  37.9  40.1  44.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0 -29.0 -25.0 -19.0 -20.0  31.0   8.0 -13.0  U VU VU  U VU  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  40.0  41.0  42.0  42.0  45.0  48.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   1.0   6.0   4.0   6.0   9.0   5.0   5.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        0.9%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.2%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 EP052023 230809 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40    161.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     31.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  15.8  15.7  13.9  19.8  24.3  23.3  30.9  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  40.0  41.0  42.0  42.0  45.0  48.0  48.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   1.0   6.0   4.0   6.0   9.0   5.0   5.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.2%        3.6%