Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230809 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    165.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.5  10.8  13.6  15.3  19.7  21.9  29.5  33.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  30.0  51.0  48.0  44.0  38.0  27.0  38.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         37.9  35.7  35.7  35.7  37.9  40.1  44.6  49.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0 -19.0  -5.0  -8.0  50.0  21.0 -33.0 -16.0  U  U  U  U  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  44.0  43.0  40.0  42.0  42.0  47.0  53.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   4.0   6.0   7.0   7.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.3%        2.1%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        2.8%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        1.8%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.84

 EP052023 230809 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    165.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.5  10.8  13.6  15.3  19.7  21.9  29.5  33.2  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  44.0  43.0  40.0  42.0  42.0  47.0  53.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   4.0   6.0   7.0   7.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.9%        2.5%