Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230810 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60    166.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  13.4  16.4  17.7  21.0  22.9  31.9  31.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  51.0  51.0  37.0  44.0  37.0  26.0  67.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         25.7  25.7  27.9  27.9  30.1  32.3  37.0  40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0 -25.0   6.0  55.0  39.0  -7.0 -27.0  11.0  U VU  U  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  43.0  42.0  44.0  44.0  46.0  51.0  55.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   6.0   8.0   8.0   6.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.2%        0.0%        6.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 EP052023 230810 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60    166.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  13.4  16.4  17.7  21.0  22.9  31.9  31.7  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  43.0  42.0  44.0  44.0  46.0  51.0  55.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   6.0   8.0   8.0   6.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.2%        2.1%