Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230810 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    168.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  16.2  16.5  20.7  22.4  30.0  36.2  34.2  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  50.0  36.0  43.0  38.0  28.0  70.0  47.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         30.7  32.9  32.9  32.9  37.3  42.0  45.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  21.0  61.0  52.0   8.0 -13.0 -21.0 -20.0  U  U  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  41.0  42.0  42.0  41.0  45.0  52.0  58.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  10.0   8.0   6.0   2.0   6.0   6.0   4.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        1.6%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        2.0%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.90

 EP052023 230810 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90    168.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  16.2  16.5  20.7  22.4  30.0  36.2  34.2  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  41.0  42.0  42.0  41.0  45.0  52.0  58.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  10.0   8.0   6.0   2.0   6.0   6.0   4.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        7.6%        3.8%