Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230811 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    173.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  19.7  21.0  23.6  30.6  28.3  32.3  32.4  F  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  44.0  39.0  36.0  25.0  40.0  48.0  46.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         47.9  47.9  50.1  52.3  57.0  59.3  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  38.0  -9.0  -6.0 -17.0 -13.0  22.0  77.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  41.0  40.0  42.0  42.0  49.0  56.0  61.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   9.0   7.0   6.0   4.0   5.0   3.0   1.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.6%        2.4%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%        4.0%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.9%        2.3%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%        2.1%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        3.9%        2.1%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.98

 EP052023 230811 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    173.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  19.7  21.0  23.6  30.6  28.3  32.3  32.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  41.0  40.0  42.0  42.0  49.0  56.0  61.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   9.0   7.0   6.0   4.0   5.0   3.0   1.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.3%        2.6%